September 9, 2004 - Election 2004: Guns vs. Butter

Today's Commentary: September 9th, 2004

Hello Thinkers!

Before I get to my scheduled rant, I must follow up some comments I made in my last distribution. In my August 24th Commentary, I ripped into Johnny Hair and the Edwards Ambulance Machine for using litigation in an attempt to shut down the Swift Boat Veteran's for the Truth 527 ads.

http://home.comcast.net/~fish2xs/todayscommentary/2004-august-24.html

Since then, I have read and heard that the Bush team is also suing to shut down other 527 advertisements. Any assault on non-libel speech, especially during the political season, is inexcusable and unforgivable. Are we only to be allowed to hear what the respective campaigns want us to hear? What a ridiculous display of elitism from both campaigns! While most of you can figure out how I'll be voting this November, I still have plenty of bones to pick with Mr. Bush. His assault on the first amendment is only part of it. Now on to the subject at hand....

Mon Dieu! What must John Francois Kerry be thinking now? Only a few short weeks ago, polls showed the presidential race to be a statistical toss-up, with Kerry in the lead. It was a tight horse race reminiscent of other epic battles: Wyatt Earp vs. Ike Clanton, Allies vs. Axis, Ginger vs. MaryAnn. Now after the Republican convention, Bush/Cheney is enjoying, by some reports (which I don't believe, by the way) a double digit lead over Kerry/Edwards.

This recent surge has not gone unnoticed by Johnny Hair. The midnight rally in Springfield, OH, immediately following the Republican convention is a certain sign that the gelcoat is coming off the yacht. Even the lovely Teresa has not been immune from the angst of their recent political tailspin. The combination of Happy-Meal caviar and breathing the omnipresent cloud of Paul Mitchell hair products pumped into the Kerry campaign bus must be taking its toll on her tummy.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/05/heinz.kerry.hospital/

Many are the factors which could be causing this turn of events. Post-convention bounces are common, as long as you are not John Kerry, anyway. It is possible that voters are beginning to seriously look at Kerry in light of the message that the RNC focused on in NYC. Even less than two months away from the election, Kerry's positioning is still fluid on significant issues. When pushed to answer Bush's question, "Knowing what we know now, would [Kerry] have supported going into Iraq?", Kerry answered yes.

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2004/08/17/kerrys_lack_of_decisiveness_on_iraq_is_suffocating_him/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A37796-2004Aug27.html

This is interesting coming from the self-described "anti-war" candidate. More recently, he is telling us that Bush is doing "everything" wrong in Iraq. It seems the only 180 Kerry has a problem with is the one that will release his Vietnam medical records.

John Kerry's persistent flip flopping could well be a natural result of the composition of today's democratic party. Not only does he need to get the pivotal undecided voter, Johnny Hair also needs to shore up the mosaic of special interests that currently comprise his voting base. This mosaic is held together almost exclusively by a visceral loathing of all things W. This puts Kerry at the mercy of the group to whom he speaks at any point in time, leaving him to do a patch job on the others to keep their support from deflating. Grabbing undecided votes by talking tough on defense one day, means outlining the next day, his objectives of 'Operation Infinite Appeasement' to his base, who mostly believe the attacks of 9/11 are America's fault.

Seizing this, the RNC did what it had to do, and did it very well. They focused on getting out one message: "Our team is better at keeping us safe", and making that message more important than any coming from the other camp. Johnny Hair has even been helping the RNC cause. During his acceptance speech in Boston, he said "Any attack will be met with a swift and certain response," implying that he would wait for another attack instead of doing something to prevent it.

http://www.johnkerry.com/pressroom/speeches/spc_2004_0729.html

The reply from the Republicans? Wake up you idiot! We have already been attacked - now we must take the fight to our enemy.

I have been wrong predicting elections before, and have made a point to avoid predicting this one. But I cannot see how enough of the people who give a damn enough to vote can look at the messages coming from both candidates and put a solid national security policy in the back seat at this point in our history. I have never thought, and still do not believe, that Kerry will even make it close. I feel only a major faux pas (and I mean major!) can derail Bush in November.

I suspect that the penultimate nail in Kerry's political coffin may have come from outside our borders. Images of the slaughter of over 300 innocent people, half of them school children, in Beslan, Russia, needs to be seared - seared into Kerry's memory like a Cambodian Christmas party. No economic policy, civil rights issue or Francophile philosophy Kerry runs with can compare to the guttural response Americans felt when Chechnyan Islamic terrorists mowed down fleeing schoolchildren, shooting them in the back as they escaped. Within every parent's mind is the horror that people exist in the world who could actually do this. The only thing that approaches my personal disdain for these Islamic terrorists, is the whitewashing of them with terms like "rebels" and "militants", that the press is currently engaged in.

Each voter will be making a statement in November. Will it be similar to that of Vladimir Putin who said, "Just imagine that people who shoot children in the back came to power anywhere on our planet. Just ask yourself that, and you will have no more questions about our policy in Chechnya." Or will it be similar to that of French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, who 'wanted to express solidarity' yet said, "but also we want to have all the necessary information and we remind Russia every time we meet of the need to respect human rights".

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/08/international/europe/08russia.html

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storydisplay.cfm?storyID=3589710&thesection=news&thesubsection=world

My statement would be to suggest Mr. Putin change his last name to "the Impaler".

As said before, I have been wrong in picking the winner in epic historical struggles, and despite my beliefs, this one could be very close. Oh, who am I kidding? This race was never close. It is MaryAnn by a country mile!